STYLEgod
04-19-2006, 12:56 PM
In 1961, radio astronomer Frank Drake devised an equation to express how many observable civilizations should be in our galaxy. The last variable in the Drake Equation, “L”, the lifetime of a communicating civilization, is difficult to pin down. On Earth, we have been communicating with radio waves for less than 100 years. Will our civilization continue at this level of technological sophistication for another 100 years? We certainly hope so. Another 10,000 years? This seems less certain. Another billion years? Impossible to say. The differences in these estimates profoundly affect the Drake Equation. Given the vast distances of space and the long times required to communicate using electromagnetic radiation, the lifetime of communicating civilizations will make the difference between taking part in a Galactic conversation and tossing occasional notes in bottles into the vast interstellar sea.The biggest problem in estimating this variable in the Drake Equation, some say, is that we have only one example to go by. Our civilization on Earth in the 20th and 21st centuries is a new experiment built on a tumultuous history, and its future stability is not yet assured. Technologies, once established, may become essential to a civilization or may be instrumental in its destruction.
Is there any way to predict whether our current civilization will continue to listen to the stars for many millennia to come? Can we assume that our story is sufficiently representative to lend insight into the lifetime of other galactic communicators? Are there any other data we can analyze to get at the underlying factors that determine the lifetime of a civilization? Perhaps we can learn from the past. In Jared Diamond’s new book, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, he discusses the techniques used by archaeologists to follow the rise and fall of civilizations. Collapse provides data from isolated civilizations of the past, and compares these case studies to unearth causes of their success or failure.
http://www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1930&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0
Is there any way to predict whether our current civilization will continue to listen to the stars for many millennia to come? Can we assume that our story is sufficiently representative to lend insight into the lifetime of other galactic communicators? Are there any other data we can analyze to get at the underlying factors that determine the lifetime of a civilization? Perhaps we can learn from the past. In Jared Diamond’s new book, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, he discusses the techniques used by archaeologists to follow the rise and fall of civilizations. Collapse provides data from isolated civilizations of the past, and compares these case studies to unearth causes of their success or failure.
http://www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1930&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0